Who Stands to Benefit from the Renaissance
For many years, nuclear power was regarded in much of the Western world as a fading technology. After Fukushima, the political trend seemed unmistakable. Decommissioning reactors, expanding renewables, and moving toward an energy future without nuclear power. Yet this phase of withdrawal now appears to be over – for the moment. Global uncertainty in energy markets, the geopolitical pressure of climate change, the need for reliable baseload power, and the desire to reduce dependence on fossil-fuel suppliers have triggered a quiet but consequential revival of nuclear energy. This “new appetite,” documented by international energy agencies, carries far-reaching implications, particularly for countries that control the key resource behind the technology: uranium. Several structural trends are driving this renewed demand.
First, dozens of countries around the world are currently modernizing their nuclear reactors or constructing new ones. In addition to established nuclear powers such as France, the United States, and the United Kingdom, countries like China, India, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey are becoming increasingly important. Beijing, in particular, intends to surpass the United States in installed nuclear capacity by the mid-2030s. Such ambitions require not only large quantities of uranium but also long-term, strategically secure supply chains.
Second, new reactor designs are moving to the forefront of energy policy. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are seen as a promising technology for states with less stable power grids or those seeking the political and financial flexibility offered by smaller units. Western industrialized nations also view SMRs as a complement to their existing nuclear fleets. This global technological shift reinforces structural demand for uranium and reshapes the geopolitical landscape for exporting countries.
Third, the geopolitical instability of recent years, especially the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has pushed the question of reliable and politically stable suppliers to the center of strategic planning. Uranium is no exception. Although global volumes are small compared with fossil fuels, the supply chain is extremely sensitive. Only a handful of countries control a large share of global mining and processing. As these states gain geopolitical relevance, their influence directly affects the international security environment.
The concentration of the global uranium market is striking. Kazakhstan is by far the world’s largest producer, making the Central Asian nation a key player for nearly all countries relying on nuclear power. Domestic political stability, regional dependencies, relations with Russia and China, and the overall condition of Kazakhstan’s extractive sector all have immediate consequences for global energy markets. Particularly noteworthy is the role of Russian companies, which remain deeply embedded in Kazakhstan’s nuclear ecosystem through joint ventures and technological cooperation. This creates a structural dilemma for Western states seeking to reduce their energy-related exposure to Moscow. Kazakhstan, however, is not the only strategically relevant actor. Niger, long one of Africa’s most important uranium exporters, has been in political upheaval since the military coup of 2023, disrupting European supply structures. France, traditionally heavily dependent on Nigerien uranium, has been forced to identify new suppliers. Given Russia’s growing presence and the activities of other external actors in the region, the European Union is unlikely to remain passive in the face of shifting strategic dynamics. How it responds will depend on the priorities of individual member states and the course of regional developments. Australia and Canada also rank among the world’s leading uranium producers and, unlike several other exporting nations, benefit from stable political systems and reliable regulatory frameworks. This stability makes them preferred partners for Western states. Both countries have increasingly aligned their resource sectors with Western markets, helping to establish alternative supply routes that are less vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.
Another factor shaping the global nuclear landscape is the role of state actors. Russia and China are steadily expanding their presence in the international reactor market. Moscow not only controls a significant share of global uranium enrichment but is also a leading supplier of turnkey nuclear power plants in emerging economies. Countries opting for Russian reactors commit themselves to decades-long dependencies on Russian technology, fuel supply, and maintenance. China, too, is becoming more assertive. Offering favorable financing conditions and comprehensive state guarantees to attract new partners. This growing technological and economic influence forces uranium-exporting states to reassess their foreign-policy strategies. Those tied to Russia or China operate in an environment increasingly defined by rivalry between major power blocs. For many exporting countries, this situation creates both opportunities and risks. Nations such as Namibia, Uzbekistan, and Mongolia are experiencing rising competition among foreign investors. International energy companies and state-backed enterprises are seeking long-term contracts that promise stable revenues for decades. At the same time, political pressure is increasing on these countries to avoid overdependence on any single geopolitical patron. Balancing economic benefits with foreign-policy neutrality is becoming a strategic challenge.
Environmental considerations also play a role in evaluating uranium suppliers. Debates over sustainable energy production and “green taxonomies” have begun to influence international regulatory decisions. In 2022, the European Union approved the inclusion of nuclear energy as “sustainable” under certain strict conditions. This move significantly increased Europe’s attractiveness as a market for uranium suppliers and intensified competition among exporting states, which must now demonstrate political stability, transparent governance, and responsible environmental standards. As global demand for nuclear energy rises, certain states – Kazakhstan above all – are moving into strategic positions. Their political decisions, foreign-policy alignments, domestic stability, and ability to supply over the long term will influence not only global energy prices but also the broader international security environment. Nuclear energy is therefore far more than a technical issue. It is a geopolitical factor that reorders relationships between producer, transit, and consumer states, creates new dependencies, and alters longstanding power dynamics. The renewed appetite for nuclear power will reshape energy policy and international relations in equal measure.
Anyone seeking to understand the politics of the future cannot overlook the geopolitical relevance of nuclear energy and the resources on which it depends. This is all the more true given the rapid rise of artificial intelligence and the global expansion of energy-hungry data centers, both of which are driving electricity demand at a pace that cannot, under current conditions, be met by renewables alone. Innovations in nuclear technology, from advanced reactor designs to more efficient fuel cycles, will therefore play an increasingly important role in the global energy system. Yet these developments also carry significant and lasting risks. Even the most modern reactors remain safety-critical systems, vulnerable to technical or human error. The challenge of long-term disposal of high-level radioactive waste persists, shifting responsibility across generations. And the growing digitalization of nuclear infrastructure increases exposure to cyber threats and potential sabotage. From today’s vantage point, no ideal option exists. The choice appears to lie between true nuclear-free conservation and the demands of an increasingly energy-intensive world. A tension that will shape global politics for decades. At the same time, one should not underestimate how important it is not to fall behind in an ever-advancing digital age.